A Hierarchical Model for Salmon Run Reconstruction and Application to the Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus Nerka) Fishery


Flynn, Lucy; Punt, Andre E.; Hilborn, Ray

Journal or Book Title: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Keywords: Anadromous species; Compression; Data processing; Development; Fishery management; Migration; Temporal variations; Oncorhynchus nerka; Bristol Bay

Volume/Issue: 63/7

Page Number(s): 1564-1577

Year Published: 2006


The goal of spreading the annual catch of a Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) run proportionally across all segments of the migration is rendered difficult or impossible because of the interannual variability in both run size and run timing. This problem is particularly acute in the case of the fishery for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, for which traditional run reconstruction models are not applicable because of the extreme temporal compression of the run. We develop a run reconstruction model appropriate for sockeye salmon in Bristol Bay by accounting for the hierarchical structure of the problem and by including process error. Our results indicate that the hierarchical structure is, in fact, not necessary, whereas the process error parameters are needed to fit the data. We suggest further model development without the hierarchical structure, including incorporating in-river test fishing data. The results of our method can be used to address questions regarding environmental or intrinsic drivers of run timing and the possibility of artificial selection on run timing.

DOI: 10.1139/F06-045

Type of Publication: Journal Article

Publisher: NRC Research Press