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It finally happened. I finished writing my thesis!

by Ned RozellOne hundred years after the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes is still a moonscape of ash and volcanic rock, without a tree or shrub in sight. The valley, located on the Alaska Peninsula where the Aleutians hook on to mainland Alaska, is a silent reminder of the power and potential of Alaska’s volcanoes.Hikers trek the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes on the Alaska Peninsula, walking on a sheet of ash and volcanic rock more than 500-feet-thick.Photo by Ned Rozell.I once visited the valley as one of a dozen people on a 10-day field trip with John Eichelberger, who then worked at the Alaska Volcano Observatory. As we approached the valley the first day on a bus ride from Brooks Camp in Katmai National Park, the story of the 1912 Katmai eruption began to unfold.A few miles before we reached the valley, we saw the skeletons of spruce trees, bone white and surrounded by green bushes. The trees have been standing dead since early June 1912, when falling ash killed them.Getting off the bus and hiking into the valley, we left Alaska for another world. As we walked deeper into the valley on rounded rocks that felt like styrofoam balls, the willows disappeared, the sparrows stopped singing, and the mosquitoes vanished. A grizzly bear had pressed a few tracks into the valley floor, but we saw no other signs of life.Botanist Robert Griggs named this desolate, beautiful place “The Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes” when he visited here on a National Geographic expedition in 1916. At the time, four years after the eruption, steam poured from vents all over the valley. Because the thick blanket of ash and volcanic rock has cooled since then, the valley no longer steams, but the dramatic landforms still inspire the feelings of Griggs and his companions in 1916. “We were overawed,” he wrote.In three days of the summer of 1912, a volcano Griggs named Novarupta (Latin for “new vent,”) transformed 40 square miles of the world’s best bear habitat into instant badlands, burying the downwind valley in more than 500 feet of ash and volcanic rock. Novarupta spewed 100 times more material than Mt. St. Helens and sent skyward a plume that probably reached 20 miles high. Sometime during the eruption, Mt. Katmai, six miles from Novarupta, was decapitated. In place of its summit today is a magnificent crater lake surrounded by 300-foot walls that echo the thunder of glaciers that now calve into lake.When Krakatoa volcano in Indonesia ejected half as much ash and rock in 1883, 35,000 people died. Because earthquakes that preceded Novarupta’s eruption scared residents of two nearby villages from the area, Novarupta’s human death toll was zero. More than one foot of ash fell on Kodiak, 100 miles away from Novarupta, in the days following the eruption. Roofs collapsed under the weight of the ash and the steady gray ashfall prevented townsfolk from seeing a lantern held at arm’s length at times.In his report for the National Geographic Society, Griggs wrote that if such an eruption occurred on Manhattan Island, those in Chicago could hear the explosions, Philadelphia residents would be buried under one foot of ash, and fumes from the eruption would tarnish brass doorknobs in Denver. On Manhattan Island, “there would be no survivors,” Griggs wrote.Much to the relief of the locals in both places, Alaska is not Manhattan; Alaska is a place with more than 100 volcanoes, 42 of which have erupted since people began writing down such observations in 1767.Today, the Alaskans who keep the closest eye on volcanoes work for the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage and Fairbanks. Scientists there take the pulse of the most active volcanoes in Alaska with networks of seismometers that detect earthquakes within volcanoes. They also check out satellite images each day, looking for ash plumes or increases in temperature on volcano surfaces that indicate activity, perhaps someday as dramatic as the eruption that created the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. .Find more on Cook Inlet Volcanoes at Frontier ScientistsOriginally published in the Alaska Science Forum Article #2071 July 1, 2011 Journey into the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes by Ned Rozell http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF20/2071.html"This column is provided as a public service by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, in cooperation with the UAF research community. Ned Rozell is a science writer at the institute."

Some papers are written on a whim; others mark the completion of a huge programme of field work or the solution of a complex problem. And some are more existential, marking an emotional transition, almost a rite of passage. The couple of thousand words I’ve just published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution falls into this latter category, which perhaps explains why I’m so excited to see it come out.Of course, just seeing my name in TREE is pretty cool in and of itself – TREE’s been a consistently reliable, entertaining and useful read since my undergrad days (somewhere around vol 8, I reckon) and I think that even many of those who vehemently dislike its parent publishing company maintain a soft spot for it. So, it’s a bit of a thrill to see my work published there. (OK, I’ve published there before, but in a more destructive role; this new one is rather more constructive I hope!)But more than that, this paper feels like a validation of opinions that I’ve developed over a long time. In the paper, I argue that the separate intellectual development of marine and terrestrial ecological research has been to the detriment of both, and I make some suggestions (in particular in the fields of community ecology and macroecology) where I think greater cross-realm synthesis is likely to be especially fruitful. This is something I’ve been banging on about for a while, and having written this piece I sort of wondered why I hadn’t done so five years ago (it wouldn’t have been as good then, but would have been gathering citations…) But given that nobody else wrote it in the meantime, I thought it might be interesting to examine what it is about my background that has turned me into this sort of mongrel marine-terrestrial ecologist.My first stroke of luck was in doing my undergraduate degree at UEA in the mid 90s. At that time, the ecology syllabus was partly delivered by excellent terrestrial ecologists like Bill Sutherland, Andrew Watkinson and Bob James; but also by John Reynolds and Isabelle Côté, both of whom worked primarily on marine systems but were fully integrated into the ecological ‘mainstream’. It was natural then to learn the fundamentals of population ecology using primarily fisheries case studies, or to focus on marine protected areas in conservation lectures. Spending a year at the Centre d’Oceanologie de Marseille certainly helped; and on returning to UEA, I was able to take advantage of the close links that John had forged with CEFAS to finish my degree with a marine flourish. It never really occurred to me that marine and terrestrial ecology ought to be separated.Then chance events took me back towards terrestrial ecology – I was interviewed for a PhD in marine ecology at the British Antarctic Survey, which I didn’t get; and for one in terrestrial macroecology at Sheffield, which I did. So I spent the next 8-9 years of PhD and post-doc work gradually working my way up within the ecological mainstream, with always in the back of my mind the idea that I’d like to apply some of this stuff to marine systems one day. At one point I was interviewed by Simon Jennings for a post at CEFAS. That post went to some bloke called Dulvy (whatever happened to him?). But in rejecting me, Simon advised me that if I wanted to work in marine systems my best bet in the meantime was to do the best ecology (and work with the best ecologists) that I could, and not to worry too much about the specifics of whether it was wet or dry.My advice to you: if Simon Jennings offers you advice, listen to it. It will be wise. So after some twists and turns this strategy led me to a short post-doc with Dave Raffaelli at York. Now although that specific post had nothing to do with marine ecology, as I got talking to Dave we sort of mutually realised that we were on the same page when it came to not seeing a massive divide between marine and terrestrial systems. I guess Dave was influenced by working for such a long time on the Ythan estuary: essentially a marine ecosystem, subject to tides and so on, but with terrestrial management regimes playing an equally profound role in its ecology.One thing led to another and I found myself first coauthoring a paper with Dave and Martin Solan called ‘Do marine and terrestrial ecologists do it differently?’, part of a Theme Section in MEPS aimed at Bridging the gap between aquatic and terrestrial ecology (link to OA PDF); and then attending (at Dave’s instigation) a MarBEF workshop in Oslo trying to work out what we should do with the newly-assembled huge dataset on European marine invertebrate distributions and abundances. This workshop was hosted by John Gray. John – who has very sadly since died – had something of a reputation for not being the easiest of characters; but to me he was extremely kind, generous and encouraging, and I suddenly saw an opportunity for doing some macroecological research on a marine system.So Dave and I put together an application to NERC to do some macroecology on the MarBEF dataset. I found out the week before Christmas that it hadn’t been funded, and with my contract due to run out at the end of December things looked grim. But I managed to wangle a move back to Sheffield to work with Rob Freckleton while I tried to turn the grant application into fellowship material. First the Leverhulme Trust then, eventually, the Royal Society decided that my ideas weren’t so silly after all. I like to think that this new TREE paper marks the end of my transition into an ecological mongrel, with one wet and one dry foot.Webb, TJ (2012) Marine and terrestrial ecology: unifying concepts, revealing differences. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.06.002

Mucopolysaccharides (MPS; an older term), comprise a heterogeneous group of extracellular molecules, each consisting of a core protein(a proteoglycan) with covalently joined linear carbohydrates(a glycosaminoglycan). These molecules are important biomarkers and probes for exploring disease mechanisms. At the VIII Dermatology International Congress in Copenhagen of 1930, Heinrich Adolf Gottron reported increased metachromatic staining in Dermatomyositis (DM) skin lesions. Gradually, the clinical literature has come to use Gottron’s papules (GP), red to violet plaques over the metacarpalphalangeal distal, and proximal interphalangeal joints as characteristic findings in DM. Although there are recent discussions of the sensitivity and specificity of GP and DM, the term GP has stood the test of time. Medical students are in awe when they learn that this finding can be a sign of inflammatory muscular disease and underlying internal malignancy. Now, these papules can also be a clue to the mechanisms of DM and its intriguing pathophysiology.The general concept that “structural” molecules can interact with and modify the interactions of growth factors and other molecules is now well accepted. Those interactions can involve receptors on the cell surface and bridging molecules that may be covalently or non-covalently bound to the structural molecule. Such interactions may modulate inflammatory responses.With this in mind, I refer you to Kim et al’s JID article reporting detailed studies of the MPS in GP. The glycosaminoglycan in GP is a chondroitin-4- sulfate (C4S). It interacts with both CD44 variant7 and osteopontin. Both of those latter molecules have roles in modulating immune responses, as discussed by Kim et al. A novel feature of this investigation addressed the question that has intrigued investigators for almost a century: the reason for GP’s localization to the extensor surface over hand joints. The reasons for skin disease location are often discussed but rarely approached experimentally.The role of the constant mechanical stretching of the extensor skin during ordinary circumstances was approached experimentally. Normal human fibroblasts were cultured on a tissue culture matrix, with a glass bead under their tissue culture matrix and another glass bead underneath the cell and its supporting membrane; pressure was applied above the culture. For me, this experiment recalls the fairytale princess who slept on a pea. The matrix around stretched fibroblasts was compared with non-stretched fibroblasts. The stretched cells produced increased levels of the CD 44 variant7 protein and its mRNA, which could have a role with osteopontin in contributing to inflammation and the increases in C4S.Cells interact both biochemically and physically with their environment, and the mechanical and physical interactions reported by Kim et al can be considered within the realm of “mechanobiology”. The laboratory techniques and the analyses involved may differ from those used in classical immunology and biochemistry, and no doubt they will be used in more studies of the skin. Given its potential insights, mechanobiology should be a rapidly growing science for skin biology, akin to “plastics” — as recommended to the character Benjamin in “”http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0061722/“>The Graduate”. I discussed the increasing importance of engineering analysis in biology in the 75th anniversary issue of JID.Your blogger has been afflicted by disease eponyms for several decades, as he has downed obscure names, drowning his neurons with eponyms for clinical syndromes since he was a resident. More recently, I have been concerned that eponyms may divide specialties and establish individual knowledge clubs. The issues related to eponyms are discussed in two articles in the British Medical Journal (Whitworth, 2007; Woywodt and Matteson, 2007). Some eponyms have been removed or de-emphasized on the basis of an individual’s notariety. Reiter and Wegener are the two most prominent examples; due to their activities related to National Socialism in Germany, The primary names of their eponymous designated diseases have been replaced with “reactive arthritis” and “idiopathic necrotizing vasculitis”, respectively (Strous and Edelman, 2007). “Gottron papules” can be a useful shorthand; instead of GP, I could have described the lesions as “symmetrical, disposed, shiny, well-delimited atrophic purplish papules on the extensor aspects of the digits, usually over joints, etc.” Even when their exact basis is known, there may not be a simple molecular name or shorthand for the overall clinical lesion. Therefore, this eponym enhances communication. But what about the man for whom they are named?Heinrich Adolf Gottron (1890-1974) was Professor and Chair of Dermatology in Breslau Germany during National Socialism and was “exonerated by the denazification committee in 1945”. He was appointed as professor and chairman in Tübingen in 1946, after Breslau was ceded to Poland after World War II. After the war he “was a notable representative of post-war dermatology”. From a brief review there seems no strong evidence that this eponym is being used inappropriately. Important academic and historical details of Gottron’s career can be found in the History of German Language Dermatology.In the over 80 years since Gottron’s report, investigative studies of the skin and immune system are increasing in DM, and further studies may lead us to understand its frequent association with muscle disease and internal malignancies.REFERENCES

• History of German Language Dermatology edited by A. Scholz, K. Holubar, G. Burg, W. Burgdorf, H Gollnick. Wiley-VCH Verlag, 2009.
• Strous,RD and Edelman,MC. Eponyms and the Nazi era: time to remember and time for change. IMAJ 9:207-214, 2007
• Whitworth,JA Should eponyms be abandoned? No. BMJ 335:425, 2007.
• Woywodt,A and Matteson, E. Should eponyms be abandoned? Yes BMJ 335:424,2007.

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This image (from Stories from Hans Andersen, with illustrations by Edmund Dulac, London, Hodder & Stoughton, Ltd., 1911) is in the public domain and can be found on Wikipedia.com.

Over the course of 17 days this summer, an estimated 14,000 athletes will take part in over 300 Olympic events in the UK, mostly centered on London. Such a mammoth event takes time to plan, and while we hear lots in the news about stadiums being built, controversial security plans being put into action, and athletes being trained, we don’t hear much about a less obvious, yet hugely important factor in any major event – how to keep everyone healthy and safe. With some 10 million tickets having been allocated, making sure that health hazards are monitored, outbreaks are contained and people are kept healthy is no small feat. We can’t predict everything that will happen in London this year, but we can draw upon a vast amount of experience from people involved in previous Olympics.One such veteran is Dr Jat Sandhu, the Regional Director for the Public Health Surveillance Unit in Vancouver, Canada. The unit is part of Vancouver Coastal Health Authority, the host health jurisdiction for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. Two years ago his team was tasked with monitoring public health during the Games, and responding quickly to any issues that came up. I recently caught up with him, and asked him about his work.PE: What was your role in the organisation of the Winter Olympics?JS: I was involved with different aspects of planning and preparedness of health services including public health for the Games, both inside and outside the fence. Specifically during the games, my team was responsible for a daily public health status report for VANOC (the Vancouver Organizing Committee), the IOC, and various, regional, national and international public health partners.Did anything unexpected health incidents actually happen during the Games?While some far-fetched scenarios were put forward during tabletop exercises and discussions, thankfully the Games were largely a public health success with no major, or unforeseen, issues needing to be dealt with. In actual fact, things like seasonal influenza activity were below seasonal norms, despite the circulation of the H1N1 pandemic strain. We did have a norovirus outbreak in a temporary housing facility for the Olympic workforce, and we saw some increased reports of injuries relating to public intoxication, assaults and falls, but nothing that couldn’t be handled by our routine protocols. Food safety was a critical component of preparations and monitoring during the Games, and ensuring the compliance with food safety regulations was another contributor to a healthy and memorable experience for athletes, officials, media and the general public. Being the sole hosting health jurisdiction was a real blessing, which meant we could primarily rely on routine protocols and procedures for the Games – having to coordinate response protocols across multiple jurisdictions would have been challenging!Part of your job included collecting lots of public health data during the Games. How did you deal with all of that information? Vancouver was the largest city to host a Winter Olympics, but aside from that, it’s a major tourist destination. So while our health care system has good experience with large numbers of visitors, it was a good chance to improve some of our surveillance techniques and procedures. During the Games, we produced daily Health Watch status reports on things like disease surveillance, food service closures, air and water quality indicators, emergency management advisories and health promotion messages. We produced 41 of these altogether, so it was important that each one contained just the essential information presented in an easy-to-understand way for the public, public health partners and the IOC. The format of the bulletins was always one or two key summary points, with the third point being a health promotion message. During the Games, our team got together at 7 in the morning to produce a summary for the day. This would get to my desk for review at about 9am, and if I found something unusual that I thought needed to be investigated further, I’d flag it for the team, say what indicator it was, and then one of the epidemiologists would investigate it further. It was a really intense process, in that information was coming in thick and fast from all the different surveillance systems. A daily situation report (SitRep) would then be reviewed by the public health senior leadership team at noon. By the end of the meeting, we would have determined what the key messages were for the day, what needed to be highlighted, and what health promotion messages would be included. Alongside the SitRep, we’d also have another document containing graphs and visuals, so if we wanted to visualise a particular health indicator, that could be done as well. Everything would get pulled together into the draft bulletin by 3pm, with the aim of getting the final document out at 4pm.This sounds like a really useful system – tough to set up, but once it’s up and running, much easier to manage?This was the first time that such a comprehensive bulletin was done for an Olympic Games – we really raised the bar. The whole point is that at a big event like this, you’re under the microscope a little bit, so you want to have your finger on the pulse. At previous mass gatherings, there was a tendency to be reliant on manual data – having people on the ground at various venue or hospital locations, manually collecting data and feeding data back that has to be edited does not sound anything like having your finger on the pulse.The majority of our data was electronic. In the lead-up to the event, we had written statistical algorithms for data to be analysed and summarised. The summary data files were linked automatically to an Excel workbook where graphs and tables would be automatically populated. The statistical algorithms also help you look for patterns, say in the last 7 days, or in the same period last year, but the trick comes in setting the sensitivity – do you want to overreact to things, or do you want to miss things? The emergency rooms at hospitals we were monitoring had information systems to capture every single visit that they get. We worked with our IT team to define what were some of the fields that they could pull out and inform situational awareness. An extract was established for every day at around 5am that would extract info out of the various systems and send it to our secure servers at 6am every day. The system was so successful that we actually won an innovation award last year at the Canadian Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion Conference.Have these improvements helped in any way in the aftermath?We’re now very good at monitoring acute events in the community since the Games. The system’s not perfect, but does provide some insight into what’s going on. For example in April of 2011, from our emergency room data we were able to observe a signal that indicated increased overdose visits and this coincided with the detection of more potent street heroin being in circulation. Towards the end of 2011, we also noticed an increase in some ecstasy-related visits to hospitals, and this time it was a result of tainted ecstasy that was considerably more toxic. There were other things like during the Stanley-Cup playoffs in 2011 we noticed higher visits related to alcohol intoxication and assaults, which supported the decision to close Vancouver liquor stores for the final two games of the playoffs. Unfortunately this did not prevent the riot that followed but alcohol misuse was identified in the subsequent inquiry as a contributor to the riot. (PE: You can check out the Health Watch bulletin from the playoffs here.)So do you think what you learned from the Games helped you when the riot broke out?It was a completely different atmosphere and set of circumstances. With the Olympics we had large crowds gathering in the downtown areas as well, except it was more of a family atmosphere, spread throughout the day with all ages and a very international nature to the crowd. Whereas during the hockey games, we had a greater number of younger adults with many fueled by alcohol consumed in a relatively short period in the early evenings. One of the things that came out of the Stanley Cup riot review was the recommendation to develop a municipal alcohol policy to discourage binge drinking, and that resulted in a recently launched website to raise public awareness. What public health challenges do you think the London Games face this year? How are they different to those that Vancouver (or Beijing) faced?Generally speaking communicable diseases have not been a significant issue at previous Olympics, but mass gatherings can be conducive to the introduction or spread of disease. However, this is an area that most health jurisdictions have experience with and the UK is no exception. The geopolitical climate for the Summer Games is very different, given the much larger number of countries involved and the greater global attention. I would imagine there would have been many scenarios being planned for, especially after the unfortunate experiences of 7/7 and the Litvinenko incident. Fortunately, I would say the public health command and control structure is more robust in the UK and the HPA (Health Protection Agency) has a good working relationship with different parts of local (boroughs) and national (e.g. COBRA committee) governments. The key is ensuring that clear lines of communication are maintained between different agencies and for the co-ordination of multi-jurisdictional issues. Have you been involved in any big events since the Games?Unfortunately, not directly but I’m part of the WHO virtual advisory group on mass gatherings so often hear about other events. This is a multidisciplinary professional group that comprises a number of different people from various past host jurisdictions, as well as future ones, involved in disaster and emergency management, risk assessment, global health security, public health and surveillance. This is a great expert group to connect with for hosts of mass gathering events if you are not already aware of them, or heard from a member! For those interested, the Lancet had a commentary piece out recently on mass gatherings and about creating a lasting legacy in the form of improved and advanced healthcare systems, it’s well worth checking out. What were your favourite things about being involved with the Olympics?It’s a difficult question but so many different aspects were rewarding. We were so intensely involved in doing our part for the Games, that we could have easily missed out on them actually occurring. I guess, thinking about it, it was good to actually get through it all unscathed – and knowing that we did a good job and set a new standard for future events. The camaraderie amidst the long days was a highlight. Everyone worked really hard, and knowing you’ve got a good team around you, where everyone understands their role, you know that they won’t let you down. So yeah, if you ask me about what things I’m really happy about, it was just seeing how well our team performed in making sure (at least from a public health point of view) the Games were a success. When you hear about public health in the news, it usually means that something’s gone wrong. If the staff are doing a good job, you never get to hear about them. The public health workforce are one of the many unsung heroes of the Games.About Dr SandhuDr Jat Sandhu, is the Regional Director of the Public Health Surveillance Unit at Vancouver Coastal Health Authority. The Unit was established in 2007 to support regional public health practice in the areas of health assessment, disease surveillance, epidemiological investigations and knowledge exchange. The Unit was recognised as a national leading practice for public health by Accreditation Canada in November 2010.Dr Sandhu has training and work experience that has encompassed British Military Hospital Pathology; WHO regional training centre for Medical Education in Sydney, Australia; the Australian Red Cross; the Provincial Laboratory for Public Health in Alberta; faculty at the University of Bristol in England, and work with various public health agencies of the National Health Service in the United Kingdom.Dr Sandhu contributes to public health capacity development through his faculty appointments at the University of British Columbia and Simon Fraser University, as well as being primary placement supervisor for field epidemiologists with the Canadian Field Epidemiology Program of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

I spent this morning interviewing students for PhD positions. We have a policy of interviewing all students so that we can fairly distribute PhD awards to the best students. A good common question to ask is whether they can discuss some science related topic they may have picked up from news reports in the recent past. Maybe it is because they are nervous, or possibly they are trying too hard to impress us with their focus, but it is surprising how many prospective students appear to be unable to talk about any topic that is not related to their underrgraduate research project or the Ph.D. they hope to pursue.I expected there to be a large number of students keen to apply for PhDs this year because of the recession and presumably fewer jobs for graduates. However, there seems to be little difference in the number of students from the UK and Europe who are applying this year when compared with last year’s figures. However, there seem to be a larger number of Chinese, Mexican and Brazilian students. A surprising comparison as I had thought their economies to be in better health than Europe.

(or: Foot stamping III)For anyone who visits and reads this blog from time to time, and is familiar with my various disaffections with an apparent ‘black-listing’ by the Leicester Mercury_, take a look, if you will, at this recent example of what it considers sufficient topical relevance for communication to the citizens of Leicester – the awarding of business funding to a dreaming tarot reader.Its author’s apparent appeal for support for an organisation called "_Leicester Business Women":http://www.leicesterbusinesswomen.co.uk/ seems laudable enough. Got no argument with empowering women to get fledgling business ideas off the ground, particularly in these economically dire times in what is (whether we’re reluctant to admit it or not) a (fucked-up-by) ’man’s world.’ Fair play. Except what the author is obviously doing is exploiting an opportunity to also market her wares. I know, I know, it is better for the blood pressure to just ignore; each to their own, and all those relativist platitudes. And, flabbergasted as I was/am, I have not used the Leicester Mercury‘s online portal to ’examine.’ There, I merely appended the not unreasonable comment as to LBW_’s apparent profligate lavishing of scarce resources on the funding of such a ridiculous enterprise.However, I couldn’t resist hunting out the business’s own website. So, give yourself a treat and take a look at "_Pure & Blessed Tarot":http://pureblessedtarot.webs.com/. As its owner makes more information publicly available there, I will here claim the right to publicly offer up comment and opinion on the assorted claims and services therein.I was (and still am) largely ignorant of what its practitioners claim Tarot can do for anybody, but it seems to me, from what I read there, that it is not unconnected with that whole ‘positive’ thing that crops up ubiquitously, couched in that woolly kind of language that all reads very nice, but actually says nothing. The Home page quickly employs an interesting disclaiming tactic:bq. ‘I help open minded people’ [sic]This is potential genius. If, after you’ve shelled out your coffers, you find yourself curiously unaffected, well, I’m afraid that will be because you were not simple-minded enough simply were not open-minded enough. I’m not sure whether being open-minded is here considered an either/or logic state; or the attainment of some point on a gradient ranging from lead-dense bigotry to vacuum-skulled self-oblivion. Whatever, it appears that prior credulousness is a necessary pre-requisite. (Yes, I’m aware of the tautology in that last sentence; it is deliberate.)So, what else is on offer there?Well, being a member of the Federation of Holistic Therapies, the possibilities are seemingly endless. As a diversion, take yourself to the FHT search facility, which is, I have to say, fascinating in its scope. Here, you will find a quite bewildering list of ‘therapies’, including, along with the usual suspects (eg, Crystal Therapy, Homeopathy, Reflexology), stuff that would seem to be not ‘therapy’, but cosmetic, or fitness; along with some bizarre stuff I’d never heard of (eg, Iridology, Moxibustion, Zero Balancing). Despair not: clicking on a selection may provide a small adjacent boxed description. It is well worth a browse. And I confess that some of these read quite pleasurable. But let’s not get side-tracked. Instead, back to our subject, who is proud to declare among her skills a sub-set of that listing, including: Reflexology, Reiki, and… in case you needed confirmation of how stupid human beings being stupid can be… Thermal-Auricular Therapy (Ear candle) – yes, lighting candles in your ears.Of these, the one allocated a tabbed page of its own – and thus, we might presume, a skill the site’s author is particularly proud of – is Reiki. I think all I need do here is quote the words provided:bq. ‘The Reiki system of healing uses universal life-force energy. This is an energy, which is safe, gentle, natural and intelligent. The energy is channelled through the practitioner and knows where to go and what to do, to help restore harmony and balance to the body. Reiki is easy to learn and generally split into three levels. Reiki is used by people of all faiths and belief systems, as a system of relaxation and healing. You can receive and practice Reiki, no matter what your religion.’Unless you, reader, are completely devoid of sceptical bones, I really do not think I need go to work on that paragraph of pseudoscholastic piffle.But it gets worse better: scroll down, and you are offered ‘House Blessings’:bq. ‘Bringing harmonious energies to your home with rituals and blessing inspired and developed through the knowledge and understanding of Reiki and Crystal energies.’This old ‘energy’ thing again. Combined with the religious-lite/spiritual thing for cuddlesome universality. Of course if you are tempted but require convincing, there are always those positive Testimonials. Don’t expect any negative ones – after all, it is not a place for negativity.Why do I do this? Why am I criticising the online activity of someone I don’t know and have never met? Is it really worth the expenditure of my time and energy? Is it a channelling of ‘positive energy’ to take umbrage with umbrage?bq. ’ Tarot woman, I don’t knowI don’t knowI don’t knowHey, I don’t know ’

SUMMARY: A lovely exploration of sparrows, the scientific insights they inspire and how they influence human culture Regardless of where you go, there they are. In bushes, in parking lots, on sidewalks, underfoot. They’re chirping, eating, hopping, quarreling, fornicating. “Little brown jobs,” bird watchers murmur dismissively. Sparrows. They’re seemingly everywhere. In the opening sentence in her new book, Sparrow [Reaktion Books; 2012: Guardian Bookshop; Amazon UK; Amazon US], environment writer Kim Todd immediately captures her readers’ attention by stating; “The sparrow is a slight bird, small and dun-coloured, easily crushed.”Easily crushed?

Here are the slides for my talk today about Bayesian variable selection. It’s mainly of interest to other statisticians, my excuse is that I’m talking at a statistical meeting (and I’m a keynote speaker! Wooo!).

NextGen Voices is a feature of the premier science magazine, Science. It is designed as a series of surveys targeted towards young scientists, asking them questions on different aspects of life as a scientist that matters to them.(For some reason, it is not very well publicized, which is a pity – because I do think that NextGen Voices is offering young scientists an important platform to voice their opinions. I got to know about it only because my colleague in the lab, a subscriber to Science, showed it to me. This is partly the reason why I wanted to blog on this today – to raise awareness).

In 250 words or less, NextGen Voices asks young scientists:
What one big idea in your field do you wish that every non-scientist understood? Why?

I had a little time in between incubations sigh!, and decided to quickly jot down a response. I am sure there would be many other worthy folks who would write awesome essays on what matters to them. I can’t compete with them. But this survey question immediately lit up a corner of my mind like the tree at the Rockefeller Center around Christmas time (see Postscript); that is to say, this topic – which is associated with communication and perception of science – is very dear to me. The following is what I wrote:

A scientific idea that I wish every non-scientist understood? Easy: “Scientific Method”, the foundation for rational, empirical, evidence-based understanding of the natural world; the central idea elegantly guiding how science works to advance knowledge.

To an enquiring mind, systematic observations of natural phenomena raise questions about their characteristics, antecedents and effects. To seek answers, the Method requires formulation of one or several ‘hypotheses’ – each a speculation about a phenomenon’s properties – including a ‘null hypothesis’, the idea that an observed phenomenon is merely a coincidental product of pure chance. Validity of each hypothesis is tested empirically by designing and conducting experiments with rigorous scientific controls, and analyzing generated data objectively to gather evidence.

A hypothesis unsupportable by evidence is modified (and retested), or discarded altogether, making way for alternative hypotheses. If supported by evidence, the hypothesis is accepted and forms the basis for asking new questions. Either way, this process continues recursively until there is a measure of confidence in the observations. Thus is born a ‘scientific theory’, a punctiliously arrived-at, confirmed and reliable explanation for natural phenomena.

Unfortunately, several key terms, ‘theory’ among them, have entered common parlance in a way that allows only their narrow, most restrictive definitions; for instance, ‘theory’ conjures up, to the lay mind, an image of unproven assertions. This severely hampers public perception of science’s accomplishments, leading to challenges to the credibility of scientific conclusions – as seen, for example, in the antagonism towards evolution, vaccines and global warming. This is eventually detrimental to the society.

For want of space (brevity ain’t my strong suite!), I couldn’t talk about another central idea, falsifiability or refutability. A hypothesis, in order to be valid, must be falsifiable, which means that whatever the hypothesis, it must be possible, at least in principle, to design an experiment whose outcome would completely contradict or refute the assertion made in it. For example, ‘All dogs are friendly’ is a testable, falsifiable hypothesis because it is logically possible that some dogs may not be friendly, and the actual finding of even one such canine would refute the hypothesis.

Why is this important? As human beings, even scientists may suffer from certain cognitive biases, including confirmation bias – a situation in which a preexisting belief in a given hypothesis pushes one to subconsciously filter observations in order to retain only those that are supportive of the hypothesis, even if the empirical reality demonstrates otherwise. An appropriate example of confirmation bias is an enduring belief in scientifically implausible propositions, such as homeopathy, in face of all evidence pointing otherwise.

By adhering to the principle of falsifiability, a scientist is obliged to strive to disprove a hypothesis, rather than prove it. This, along with an emphasis on reproducibility of results and the maintenance of strict controls during experiments, can adequately alleviate such cognitive biases, making the scientific conclusions that much stronger.

P.S. A glimpse of the 2004 Christmas Tree at the Rockefeller Center, New York City (click on the photo to embiggen).

P.P.S. Do add your voice by clicking on the NextGen Voices link at the beginning of this post.

Todays cartoon inspired by the phenomenon that due to the curvature of the globe, distant objects are hidden in the ocean. This picture explains it:Image source: Wikipedia course, there is a twist in the story:The other source of inspiration is the relative size of swimming pools. About a year I started to swim regularly. At the first times even one lap seemed utterly long, I was out of breath. Now, I can swim about 4 kilometers without any problem.Good news! I finally started the official Facebook page of Stripped Science at facebook.com/strippedscience

Fairbanks, Alaska, July 10, 2012—- “To this point no one has much of any terrestrial record anywhere in the Arctic older than 125,000 years ago,” said Julie Brigham-Grette, University of Massachusetts Amherst as she describes findings from the Lake El’gygytgyn (or Lake E) project to Office of Polar Programs Board Meeting at the National Science Foundation.Brigham-Grette along with Martin Melles, University of Cologne Germany and Pavel Minyuk, North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute in Magadan, Russia, undertook the core drilling of Lake E, a lake that sits today inside a basin formed by a meteorite that struck the earth 3.6 million years ago. From their findings so far Brigham-Grette confidently said, “This is not a back water lake in the middle of nowhere—it’s actually a lake that is recording a global signal.”Science magazine published 2.8 Million Years of Arctic Climate Change from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Russia (Science online 21 June 2012, in print July 13) describing some of the team’s findings. But watch the video JBG Describes Research at Lake E to see and hear the enthusiasm and details as Brigham-Grette describes the findings of this remarkable discovery. Frontier Scientists shares first person accounts and real time insights from leading archaeologists, grizzly bear biologists, volcano researchers, climate change specialists and other scientists.The research covers many categories:Arctic Archaeologythe Arctic’s Amazing BirdsClimate Change WatchComputational ScienceCook Inlet VolcanoesGrizzliesPaleo-Eskimo HistoryPermafrostPetroglyphsAlaska’s Unmanned Aircraft ResearchAlutiiq WeaversWhere Is Lake El’Gygytgyn?*Arctic Winter Cruise“We want to let travelers, teachers, students, aspiring scientists, and anyone else interested in science feel as if they are with scientists as they track grizzlies or take the temperature of permafrost in a borehole,” explained Liz O’Connell, video director for Frontier Scientists.Visitors to Frontier Scientists can ask questions direct to our featured scientist. Fascinating video of current scientific discoveries in some of the Arctic’s most remote and dramatic landscapes are chronicled in short videos, Twitter feeds, blogs and web reports. Discover Arctic science at www.FrontierScientists.com.

While a resident at Harvard (Massachusetts General Hospital) in Howard Baden’s lab I was assigned a research project studying human epidermal lipids using X-ray diffraction techniques. Pounds of scale that Howard Baden and Irwin Freedberg had collected from patients with erythroderma were extracted with chloroform and methanol over steam baths, and analyzed for lipids by various techniques. These studies culminated in a presentation to the Society for Investigative Dermatology in Atlantic City and publication in Nature; and the idea that a lifetime in the dermatological sciences would be so much fun was instilled.I have retained a special interest in epidermal lipids. Recently, Iwai et al published a detailed study in JID using various physical, spectrographic, and imaging techniques to study lipids associated with the barrier. They present a new model of how cholesterol and ceramide sphingoids are arranged in the barrier to support its various functions. I will leave the details of the scientific results to the aficionados and concentrate instead on the organization and internationalization of science exemplified by this project.The main players come from Northern Europe (Sweden, Norway, and the United Kingdom) and Japan, and there was close collaboration between researchers from Academia and Industry in a project that spanned a decade. Is a project of this long duration, involving individuals from multiple institutions and countries, the public (non-profit) sector and the for-profit sector the new norm? In the 75th Anniversary issue of JID, Bauer and Cohen and Parrish discuss increasing industrial and academic collaborations; these articles are required reading for those thinking about commercializing their scientific findings and collaborating with the for-profit sector. In the same issue, Uitto and Rodeck discuss the globalization of the research enterprise.All institutions must address for themselves the advantages, disadvantages, and barriers to various collaborations. The role of confidentiality, protection of graduate students, and the role of intellectual property must all be considered. In addition, is there a convergence of interests, with academic institutions concerned about commercialization, spinning off companies, and fostering biotech incubators? Is that the best model and direction for academic institutions? What are the best models: for the academic institution, for the investigator?Our scientific societies should encourage these discussions. Models should be explored, and the excellent – and disastrous — outcomes discussed. Yes, everyone likes to talk about successful collaborations, but failures require as much if not more consideration, even if the discussion is painful and difficult. Seeking profits and patents may complicate or even prevent frank discussions; is that the kind of environment that scientists in academia ultimately desire? These questions lack easy answers, but if they are never asked they will never be answered and the framework for best practices will not be established. Parrish’s article concludes with an important checklist of the institutional, personnel, and leadership issues to consider when beginning new collaborative endeavors. It deserves attention. We encourage readers to comment on their experiences in this important interface between the for-profit and not-for-profit worlds.TO COMMENT:

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Image used under the Creative Commons License; the original can be found at Images_of_Money on Flickr.com

Cypress Trees and knees at dusk in the Atchafalaya Basin, Louisiana.TweetA trip into Atchafalaya Basin in Bayou Sorrel, Louisiana is a surreal experience. Between the softly dressed cypress trees covered in Spanish moss, the calm green waters, and the unique species of birds perched atop majestic water-dwelling trees, you feel that you’ve just stepped into an enchanted forest. I traveled with my boyfriend’s family into these swamps in a 6-seater boat, guided by a Basinkeeper who knows well the value of this region to local wildlife and human populations both.The Atchafalaya Basin is the largest swamp in the United States. A combination of wetlands and river delta area where the Atchafalaya River and the Gulf of Mexico converge, this swamp naturally protects Louisiana’s coast from the hurricanes that are notorious here. Every 2.7 miles of wetlands may absorb an average of one foot of storm surge (USACE, 1963). But these beautiful swamps deserve a look beneath the surface. Beyond their beauty, the Louisiana wetlands play important roles in ecosystem services and protection of the state’s coastline08functions.htm. These wetlands and the cypress trees that populate them, as shown here, act to naturally protect the coastline from erosion and hurricane damage, to store and convey floodwaters, and to absorb sediments and contaminants. Swamps and wetlands are some of the largest natural carbon sinks in the world, sequestering excess carbon dioxide that would otherwise drive further climatic warming.But the swamps and wetlands of south Louisiana are in peril. Between oil pumping, agricultural pressures, human transportation, and illegal cypress tree logging, the rate of wetland loss here exceeds the equivalent of a football field every hour. 80% of U.S. coastal land loss is occurring right here in Louisiana, largely due to human disturbance to these wetlands.Levees along the Mississippi river have for decades now starved the Louisiana wetlands of the natural sediments that used to flow into them. Starving wetlands are sinking in a phenomenon known as natural land subsidence, while pumping the ground underneath for oil is only aggravating the problem. Illegal logging and death of the cypress trees in these swamps reduces the buffering capacity of the Basin against hurricane and storm surge damages to urban areas. Learn more about what is causing the land loss crisis here.Global warming is aggravating the loss of wetlands, while dying wetlands release even more carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere in a vicious cycle of climatic forcing. Global warming increases the likelihood of highly-damaging hurricanes that flood and damage these wetlands, while rising sea levels due to glacial melting and ocean warming pose further threats to the swamps.Criss-crossing canals cut into the swamps create ‘spoil banks’ that destroy the natural hydrology of the region, preventing natural movement of water through the Basin. Invasive plant and animal species have also taken their toll on these delicate swamps.Destroying these wetlands in the name of industrial progress and oil resources has serious consequences for local ecosystems. Louisiana’s wetlands provide habitats for thousands of unique plant and animal species, many of which are now endangered. Louisiana black bears, bald eagles, brown pelicans, ibises with long down curved bills, great white egrets and blue herons wading with their slender legs through marshy waters in search of fish. Between food, fuel, pollution interception, coastal protection and flood control, the value of healthy Louisiana swamps and wetlands tops millions of dollars.Here, locals fish while telling tales of old days when these swamps were dark from thick canopies and the singing of birds was deafening. Today, the Basinkeeper who gave us this tour fights against illegal cypress tree logging and other wetland degradation forces.Please enjoy this gallery of pictures I took of the Atchafalaya Swamp! All pictures belong to Paige Brown, @FromTheLabBench. Please provide attribution. Follow @1restorethegulf and visit www.restorethegulf.com to sign a petition to help restore America’s Gulf. ___A spontaneous fishing moment!_Mighty Cypress Tree.Green Heron in the swamps.A flock of American white ibises above.An abandoned oil field production facility in Atchafalaya Basin.__Common Salvinia, or Water Spangles, an invasive plant species in these swamps. Accidentally introduced to this region, this species forms a dense cover over the swamps and depletes dissolved oxygen in the waters, degrading habitats and causing fish kills.

Darwin’s theory of Natural Selection. Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Watson and Crick’s description of the DNA molecule. All of these, and many more, are easily classed as some of Science’s Greatest Discoveries. But with modern pressures to publish high-impact papers as often as possible, are the opportunities to find the next Great Scientific Discoveries being stifled?As I’ve mentioned before, last year one of the academic heavyweights of social psychology, Diederik Stapel, was found guilty of faking data in a lot of his research. Quite a lot of data, actually – over 30 scientific papers and numerous PhD theses. In the aftermath, a lot of difficult questions have been asked about how and why something like this could possibly happen. Some of the reasoning behind his actions comes from Stapel himself: “…I did not withstand the pressure to score, to publish, the pressure to get better in time. I wanted too much, too fast. In a system where there are few checks and balances, where people work alone, I took the wrong turn.” Stapel’s behaviour is quite clearly inexcusable, but the pressure to publish may feel familiar to many other researchers – perhaps, most acutely, by the one hundred academics who recently lost their jobs at the University of Sydney for not publishing frequently enough. In principle, the idea of publishing as much as possible doesn’t seem too bad – if you’re running lots of experiments and doing lots of work, it means that we might get to see those Great Scientific Discoveries quicker, right? But this sort of mentality can cause (and has already caused) a number of undesirable side effects. Perhaps the most well known is ‘publication bias’. This can manifest itself in different ways, but generally refers to the tendency for positive results (in other words, those in which a hypothesis is confirmed) to be much more likely to be published than negative, or inconclusive results. Put another way, if you run a perfectly good, well-designed experiment, but your analysis comes up with a null result, you’re much less likely to get it published, or even actually submit it for publication. This is bad, because it means that the total body of research that does get published on a particular topic might be completely unrepresentative of what’s actually going on. It can be a particular issue for medical science – say, for example, I run a trial for a new behavioural therapy that’s supposed to completely cure anxiety. My design is perfectly robust, but my results suggest that the therapy doesn’t work. That’s a bit boring, and I don’t think it will get published anywhere that’s considered prestigious, so I don’t bother writing it up; the results just get stashed away in my lab, and maybe I’ll come back to it in a few years. But what if labs in other institutions run the same experiment? They don’t know I’ve already done it, so they just carry on with it. Most of them find what I found, and again don’t bother to publish their results – it’s a waste of time. Except a couple of labs did find that the therapy works. They report their experiments, and now it looks like we have good evidence for a new and effective anxiety therapy, despite the large body of (unpublished) evidence to the contrary.This leads into all sorts of issues rooted in precisely how we statistically analyse our work, but there’s another, simpler problem that this phenomenon causes; it’s wasting a lot of time for a lot of people. There must be countless scientific studies out there that, whilst methodologically sound, simply just didn’t produce a result deemed interesting enough to publish. And because they weren’t published, we don’t have a measure of how many times they’ve inadvertently been replicated elsewhere. Compounding this problem is the idea that if, say, a particularly time-intensive experiment doesn’t work out, researchers might find themselves under pressure to quickly publish something else instead; something that might not be particularly interesting or useful, but is quick, easy, and likely to have a positive outcome. The end result is that we’re sacrificing scientific creativity and research diversity for safe options, science in small increments, and administrative box-ticking. In Psychology, projects like Psychfiledrawer are starting to address this issue, but more clearly needs to be done.We have to accept, and be comfortable with, the fact that theories and ideas need time to fully develop. As scientists, we to be okay with things when they don’t work out the way we thought they would. The world is a big, noisy, messy place, and not only is that absolutely fine, it’s also exciting. Darwin’s theories on evolution were almost 23 years in the making; would the modern-day pressure to publish have meant that On the Origin of the Species might have been confined to a dusty lab drawer, in favour of a quick and easy, but perhaps mediocre, paper?

In my Inbox this morning, a Jobsite Jobs-by-Email Alert for ‘Post Production Editor’. Money not great, but in (what I remember as) a nicer town than my current residence, so I clicked for details, wherein the Job Summary immediately informed that the recruiting organisation is God TV having filtered out most of the ‘lying-for-a-living’ crap that was finding its way through and taking up too much of my time sifting and deleting, it seems these things are not leakproof. Because, although the terms ‘advertising’/‘marketing’/‘PR’ do not figure in the summary, what they do require is:bq. ‘… a dynamic & creative person who can edit original material which has been shot by the in-house production department and convey it’s true potential through creative flair and expertise in order to produce stunning promos & interstitials.’ (My emphasis in bold.)In other words… advertising_. (Shouldn’t that be ‘interstices’ as the noun? Unless they’re flogging imperfect crystals.) Well, being unfamiliar and intrigued, I took myself to the "_God TV site":http://www.god.tv/, where you can read all about the mission, vision and beliefs espoused by God TV_’s Founders, the lovely Rory & Wendywendy (careful, Lee, you’re giving them publicity), who will be happy to accept your donations and partnership commitment levies on behalf of Angel Charities.The eleemosynary presentation and promotion of faith. None of which suckerdom interests me in the slightest. But I wonder whether the application process for jobs in this organisation requires some demonstration of endorsement of said mission, vision and beliefs. The job advert does not stipulate so – because, legally, it cannot. That would be discriminatory. I guess commencing the Job Summary with ‘God TV’ suffices as ‘The-ungodly-need-not-apply’ filter here.

Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the most deadly and costly natural disasters to impact the United States. Storm surges occur as sea water is pushed up against a shoreline by hurricane winds, and are often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane.Beachfront road and boardwalk damaged by Hurricane Jeanne (2004), posted by the National Hurricane Center. See a simulation of storm surge.TweetResearchers at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, La, have created the first comprehensive database of storm surge information for small and large tropical cyclones alike to hit the Gulf Coast and shores worldwide since 1880. The database, called SURGEDAT, is unique in that it pulls from historical data to help validate computational modelling approaches to hurricane and storm surge predictions.“When we started this research in 2008, this approach was completely unique,” said ‘Hurricane’ Hal Needham, Geography and Anthropology graduate student at LSU and leading graduate researcher on the project. “Modeling is very useful, but you need to validate it with what’s happened historically. That is what we are trying to do here.”Historical observations as collected in SURGEDAT may help improve storm surge modelers’ forecasts of future storm surges and potential damages caused by high tropical storm waters. As tropical cyclone-generated storm surge is a complicated hazard and one that many coastline inhabitants and even emergency personnel don’t fully understand, the database can help citizens and officials better prepare for approaching storms and plan evacuations.bq. “SURGEDAT should hopefully help people understand their risk and plan ahead.” - Hal F. NeedhamThe SURGEDAT database is already providing new insights into storm surge climatology and where surges are most likely to occur.“When I started this research, I thought it was a crazy coincidence that the two biggest storm surge events we’ve seen – surges from Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – happened in the same location,” Needham said. “This gives support to the idea that there is a pattern here, that this isn’t random.”SURGEDAT currently provides an interactive map showing locations of more than 400 peak surge events along the Gulf Coast and worldwide. The coordinates for each surge event are plotted in a Geographic Information System, or GIS, with each surge event represented by a circle on the map. Larger, darker circles represent larger surges.For more about SURGEDAT, read the whole story on LSU’s website, written by LSU Research Communications Intern Paige Brown.Graphical representation of SURGEDAT database.—NOAA Surge Vulnerability Facts:1. Much of the United States’ densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level.2. Over half of the Nation’s economic productivity is located within coastal zones.3. 72% of ports, 27% of major roads, and 9% of rail lines within the Gulf Coast region are at or below 4 ft elevation (CCSP, SAP 4-7).4. A storm surge of 23 ft has the ability to inundate 67% of interstates, 57% of arterials, almost half of rail miles, 29 airports, and virtually all ports in the Gulf Coast area (CCSP SAP 4-7)

I read in the Guardian today that the National Trust’s new visitor centre at the Giant’s Causeway in Northern Ireland makes reference to Young Earth Creationism in its presentation on the geology of the formation. Now I understand that in Northern Ireland religion and politics are intertwined in a manner unfamilair to the rest of the United Kingdom; and that a protestant literalism interpretation of the bible is an important strand of opinion with a section of the community; however, I am dismayed that any organisation devoted to the maintaining of the landscape should pander to such an unscientific viewpoint.The National Trust tries to justify its stance with the following that I have copied directly from the Guardian article for those who cannot be bothered to follow the link.“The interpretation in the visitor centre showcases the science of how the stones were formed, the history of this special place and the stories of local characters.”We reflect, in a small part of the exhibition, that the Causeway played a role in the historic debate about the formation of the earth, and that for some people this debate continues today_.“The National Trust fully supports the scientific explanation for the creation of the stones 60 million years ago.”We would encourage people to come along, view the interpretation and judge for themselves_."_The interactive exhibition in question includes an audio package re-enacting debates between historic figures, who argued over the origins of the Causeway, as well as their contrasting biblical and scientific beliefs on the origins of the planet.The exchanges end with a further clip stating: "This debate continues today for some people, who have an understanding of the formation of the earth which is different from that of current mainstream science."Young earth creationists believe that the earth was created some 6,000 years ago. This is based on a specific interpretation of the Bible and in particular the account of creation in the book of Genesis."Some people around the world, and specifically here in Northern Ireland, share this perspective."Young earth creationists continue to debate questions about the age of the earth. As we have seen from the past, and understand today, perhaps the Giant’s Causeway will continue to prompt awe and wonder, and arouse debate and challenging questions for as long as visitors come to see it_."This, to me, seems to be giving too much prominence to very unscientific theories and suggesting that they are hypotheses with validity that remain untested in the Popperian sense, which is clearly bunk. If the National Trust feels that balance is important, I hope that they give equal prominence to the hypothesis that the Causeway was built by Finn McCool (Fingal or Fionn mac Cumhaill in other traditions) trying to pick a fight with the Scottish Giant Bennandonner. This theory has as much evidence backin it as does the Young Earth theory beloved by creationists.

After a years break from blogging the excitement of the Higgs announcement today has got me going again. The main effect of the announcemtnt that the higgs boson has been probably identified is a mushrooming of bad jokes built around the multiple meenings of the word mass. No, I won’t bore you with a poor selection of them. Judging by its influence on my teenage son, the discovery (possibly) of the Higgs has excited his interest in physics. Perhaps it is a pity it didn’t occur 6 months earlier as that might have improved his revision for his exams!I saw David Willets (Minister for Science) on Newsnight giving his opinion on the discovery – after having been flown out to Geneva for the occasion – he did not give a very good explanation of how mass was conferred by the Higgs field. He talked a lot about bosons bouncing off the particles and giving them mass.We should all (scientists that is) be grateful for the publicity that such occasional newsworthy articles on science generate. Understaning of the significance may not be universal but the generation of a sense of wonder about the natural world is to be welcomed.I can’t sign off without at least one flippant comment. I am not sure which of their songs would be appropriate for the occasion? Possibly “I’m the Urban Spaceman” but they could be (slightly) renamed the Boson God Doodah Band.

If I’ve done everything correctly, then at almost the moment this post appears, I will start talking about some fossils. Not, it’s not a eulogy about defenders of the 4-4-2 formation, but it’s about a bit of work I’ve been doing on trying to model when fossils appear and disappear. The work is still preliminary, in some ways, and it would be nice to get some feedback. So here are the slides: