CNH: Assessing and Adaptively Managing Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface

This project aims to enhance the capacity of stakeholders (land and wildland fire management agencies, homeowners, land developers/homebuilders, and community/regional planners) in Flathead County, Montana to assess and manage wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in light of future climate change and future residential expansion into wildland areas. The project will also improve knowledge and understanding among the broader community (middle school students, high school students, persons in youth and adult environmental education courses, and information personnel) about the nature, benefits, and risks of wildfire in the WUI.

Research objectives of the project are to: (1) develop a wildfire-climate model called FIRECLIM that simulates the complex interactions among climate change, expansion of residential development into wildland areas, and wildfire risk in the WUI; (2) demonstrate how the FIRECLIM model can be used by local stakeholders to make optimal ex ante wildfire-related decisions under alternative climate change and economic growth scenarios for the next 50 years (2008 to 2058); (3) test several hypotheses about how future climate change, future residential expansion into wildland areas, and changes in land use policy are likely to influence future wildfires and future wildfire risk in the WUI; (4) develop an ex post decision framework that the community of interest can use to adaptively manage future wildfire risk in the WUI; and (5) construct a Web-based, interactive, spatial decision support tool that facilitates application of the ex ante and ex post decision frameworks by the community of interest.

Educational objectives of the project are to: (1) train future practitioners and scientists in interdisciplinary modeling and analysis of a coupled natural-human system for managing future wildfire risk; (2) improve the capacity of the community of interest to assess and manage wildfire risk in the WUI under alternative climate change, economic growth futures, and land use policy futures; and (3) incorporate the research results into educational products that increase the broader community?s understanding and knowledge of wildfire and wildfire risk.

The FIRECLIM model integrates a landscape fire dynamics simulation model, a structure ignition assessment model, agent-based behavioral models, and climate change and economic growth futures. We will establish and collaborate with four agent panels composed of representatives of the community of interest to identify alternative decisions for either minimizing net wildfire risk or maximizing expected return on investment in defensive fire measures. Our measure of net wildfire risk is somewhat unique because it accounts for both the expected losses and expected benefits of wildfires. We will evaluate how agents can adapt their wildfire-related decisions to future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas using an adaptive management framework that employs Bayesian statistical analysis for the risk case and the minimax regret criterion for the uncertainty case. Climate change futures will be based on IPCC scenarios, and residential development into wildland areas for alternative economic growth and land use policy futures will be simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System.

The project is the first study of its kind to assess how future climate change and future expansion of residential development into wildland areas influences wildfire and wildfire risk in the WUI. Dissemination of project results will be facilitated by incorporating research results into five products designed to improve the broader community?s knowledge and understanding of wildfire and wildfire risk management: (1) a decision support tool that facilitates adaptive management of future wildfire risk by the community of interest; (2) educational programs that enable the community of interest to learn about the interactions among wildfire risk, climate change, land use change, and economic development; (3) a new, one- to two-day, adult environmental education course on the role of wildfire in ecosystems; (4) an interactive, computer simulation program that allows users to interactively simulate wildfire-related decisions for alternative future changes in climate and economic growth in a hypothetical WUI; and (5) a book tentatively titled Managing Future Wildfire Risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface. In addition, the project will train future practitioners and scientists in ways to manage future wildfire risk and involve an international researcher and graduate student from Australia.

Project personnel include scientists from Deakin University (Australia), Lindenwood University (Missouri), The University of Montana, University of Missouri, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Institutional collaborators include the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes of the Flathead Reservation, Flathead County Office of Emergency Services, Flathead County Planning and Zoning, Flathead National Forest, Glacier National Park, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, and the Glacier Institute.